Bo Xilai "too smart" to be president

My current main occupation in China is as a Senior Consultant at a boutique public relations firm. Prior to that, I was involved heavily in China's state-run media apparatus and I continue to serve as a columnist and radio guest on stations in Canada. I still consider myself a journalist somewhat, even though it is no longer my full-time job. And while I don't have connections like certified, foreign correspondents in China, I have gathered a few contacts during my tenures in state-run radio and television.

I preface this just to cover my own tracks, mainly. This blog should never be taken as a "hard news" source (in fact, very few blogs - if any - should be taken in this context). When I come across information on this site or my other site, I have to balance how much I can write with how much I can confirm and write just enough that contacts will keep me in the loop in the future. It's a perpetual balancing act.

Anyway, I had an interesting meeting tonight with a person who shed a bit of light on the party congress, which kicks off this week. Much of it, unfortunately, I can't share here. But I was particularly interested in this person's comments on Bo Xilai, the current Minister of Commerce. As I wrote earlier, Bo is expected to move from the Commerce portfolio to take the position of Party Chief in Chongqing. This hasn't been confirmed, however, and at first glance strikes many (myself included) as a demotion.

Bo Xilai has been rumored as a potential leader for many years. His father was Bo Yibo, who served loyally to Mao Zedong and was part of the first generation of leaders. His son, Bo Xilai, is known as a very "competent" individual. However according to my contact, that's what may keep him out of the General Secretary job:

Bo Xilai is too capable. He is very smart and strong. But the party leader must be someone who knows when not to speak, and when to take orders. Xi (Jingping, who is expected to succeed Hu Jintao as General Secretary and President in 2012) is a weak leader, which is why he is being promoted. He can be controlled by others.

This person also confirmed what we speculated earlier, which is Jiang Zemin still holds most of the cards. It's strange after being President and General Secretary for a full five years, Hu basically continues to play second fiddle to Jiang. One must wonder how Hu will cement his legacy, and whether he will ever have a free-hand before he steps down in 2012.

He may finish his 10 year tenure as the weakest Chinese leader to date.