China's middle class is the key... but they aren't likely to revolt anytime soon
It's an oft-repeated line in many international media: as China's middle class grows, so too will their political clout and education, and they won't continue to tolerate an authoritarian political system.
It was recently said, yet again, in this article by Howard W. French in the International Herald Tribune:
Eventually, some theorize, the middle class in China will grow so large as to make this proposition untenable. People endowed with good education, property and experience of the outside world will begin to insist on being part of the conversation, of knowing about decisions that affect their families and fortunes in real time, and on having a say.
Yes, that is one theory. But considering China's expansive growth and the increase in the size of the country's middle class over the last 30 years, we can actually test this theory. It seems, from this correspondent's point of view, that the government seems as firmly entrenched now as ever. What this theory doesn't address is that people getting "rich" become stakeholders in the current government. None of these people constituting the "middle class" want to kill their golden goose, so become the biggest supporters of the current regime and system.
This is no different than western governments. If a party has just governed over a period of large economic expansion, it's highly unlikely that it would get replaced at election time. In fact, it's likely that voter turnout would be very low. As we all know, it's the economy, stupid, and China's economy is humming along just fine.
As more people get rich, and as the middle class grows, the party will become even more firmly entrenched.
The government will be safe as long as the economic expansion continues. The problem, as we are aware, is no economy has expanded infinitum in history. Once China's middle class starts to feel a financial pinch in a recession, a decrease in property prices, a stock market crash, or heaven forbid, all of the above, we'll start to see some real calls for increased involvement in political and economic decisions.
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"What this theory doesn't address is that people getting "rich" become stakeholders in the current government. None of these people constituting the "middle class" want to kill their golden goose, so become the biggest supporters of the current regime and system."
That's spot on, Cam, and I might even take that a step further.
I get the sense from conversations that many of the urban elite here in Beijing would rather gargle rusty razor blades with a shot of Houhai lake water than give the peasants in the countryside or the migrant workers, whom the Beijingers rely on/treat with such disdain, the franchise.
The excuses I hear (lack of education, not "civilized" sufficiently, of poor "quality") sound suprisingly like the specious arguments one heard in the American South from those opposed to African American political participation during the voter rights drives of the 1960s.
It's not the urban elite who are taking drastic political action in today's China. It's rural residents who feel left out of the economic miracle, who in some cases are having their property seized or poisoned, and who have little opportunity to avail themselves of what legal protections do exist.
Good post.