China's President a lame duck?

This is an article written by your correspondent in the Victoria Times Colonist in Canada. Keep in mind, it's targeted at readers who are overseas and might not have the same intense level of interest in Chinese affairs as those who read this and other blogs.

Nonetheless, I thought I'd post it anyway. The actual version can be found here (or here in China, as I've had a hard time bringing it up without a proxy).

Who's really calling the shots in China?
Times Colonist
Published: Sunday October 21, 2007
By: Cam MacMurchy

This past week was about as close as China comes to election time. Delegates from around the country descended on Beijing for "The Big 17," as it's known in Chinese. Every five years Communist party members descend on Tiananmen Square and meet inside the Great Hall of the People to choose the party's next generation of leaders. It's known, in Communist-speak, as the 17th Communist Party of China National Congress.

People living in Beijing felt the ramifications of the congress weeks before it even started. Blogs and Internet sites were shut down, online forums were heavily scrutinized, police stepped up their presence on city streets and known political muckrakers were thrown in jail. Judging by the rare clear blue skies we experienced, it seems the party even shut down factories to literally ensure there was no rain on this parade.

Not much actual work gets done in the event itself, despite the fact it was dubbed the "biggest political event of this autumn" by Will Hutton in the Guardian. The "event" actually occurs in the lead-up to the congress, when party leaders huddle and decide who should retire and who should be promoted to the Politburo and its prestigious Standing Committee.

Although it's not formally enshrined in the constitution, it is generally agreed that the president of China and general secretary of the Communist party -- both titles currently belong to Hu Jintao -- should only rule for a maximum of 10 years. This marks the halfway point for Hu, and many analysts expect this congress to give us some insight into who might succeed Hu in 2012, and what direction that leader might take.

But what's becoming increasingly clear is that each successive leader in China seems to be weaker than the previous one, meaning they don't have much say in which direction the country goes anyway.

Mao Zedong had nearly absolute rule over China until his death in 1976, which led to disasters such as the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution. Deng Xiaoping stepped up in 1978 and began the opening up and reform period, which resulted in today's capitalist society. But since Deng, successive leaders seem to be little more than figureheads.

According to The Tiananmen Papers, an inside look at government deliberations during the Tiananmen Square crackdown, then-general secretary Zhao Ziyang was subject to decisions made by the "elders" -- a group of old comrades who worked behind the scenes and influenced the leaders of the day. In fact, according to the book, Zhao opposed the crackdown on protesters and was put under house arrest until he died in January 2005. The final decision to roll the tanks into Tiananmen Square was made by the elders, and them alone. Nearly 20 years later, despite China's rapid modernization and promises of more democracy (a term the Chinese are completely redefining), it seems that those holding real power in China stand in the shadows behind President Hu Jintao.

Most of the media attention over the past week has surrounded who will sit on the nine-member standing committee of the Politburo, also known as the "Nine Who Rule China." The future president and general secretary will come out of this group in 2012, so any personnel changes in this small clique are put under a microscope.

It's been widely speculated that Hu would use this opportunity to appoint his chosen successor to the standing committee -- or even a couple of comrades he considers close allies. But as of this writing, it appears only Li Keqiang, an old friend from Hu's days as head of the Communist Youth League, will make the cut. The other new appointee will likely be Xi Jinping, known as a "princeling" because his father, Xi Zhongxun, was a high-profile vice-premier under Mao. Many of the children of the first-generation cadres are known as "princelings" for their wealth and political status.

The point is that Hu Jintao, despite being president and general secretary, lacks the authority to unilaterally make decisions on who joins the Politburo, and who will succeed him in 2012. In the past, Mao chose his own successor (Hua Guofeng, who only lasted two years) and Deng directly appointed Jiang Zemin.

Since then, it's been a bit of a mish-mash with the president having a bit less influence each time decision time rolls around. Those gaining in influence appear to be the party elders, who are currently led by former president Jiang Zemin (a rival of Hu, and a man who favored Xi on the standing committee) and Zeng Qinghong, China's very own Karl Rove.

It's too early to say what will happen in 2012, although it's widely believed that Xi Jinping is the early frontrunner to become China's new president. So what do we know about him? Will he continue with China's free-market approach? Bring back Marxism-Leninism? Tighten the reigns on the news media? We don't really know, and even if we did, it probably doesn't matter.

That's because despite promises to govern in a more transparent fashion, decisions are still made behind closed doors among a tight clique of leaders who control the world's most populous country and fourth-largest economy.

Like George W. Bush, Hu Jintao heads into his second term as a lame-duck president. But maybe he's been that way all along.