Has the Bush Administration toyed with the toys?

I know this has been an ongoing issue for quite some time now. However, I wanted to posit a theory out there for folks to chew on. I preface this post by saying that I have no hard or fast evidence to prove any of this. This is not a journalistic entry...just the musings of an international affairs analyst.

I find the timing of all the recent hype around the Chinese product recalls a bit suspicious. First of all, I am not for a moment going to tell you that the toy recalls in the United States right now aren't justified. I wouldn't want my kid playing with toys splattered with lead-based paint. However, I do sort of wonder why this issue all of a sudden began to rear its head again.

For years there have been recalls because of Chinese produced products. I mean, when, as a country, you're pumping out the vast majority of toys for domestic US consumption, odds are, you're going to be the main focus of recalls. But still, this year, the media seems particularly interested in this ongoing saga. So why?

Since the summer of 2005 when China loosened - but didn't fully eliminate - the peg of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, to the US dollar, lawmakers in the United States have been on China's case about allowing the Yuan to revalue more quickly. The main reason is that China has a massive trade surplus with the United States, and lawmakers don't like the imbalance. They figure a higher Yuan will reduce imports, help balance out the trade surplus, and create more manufacturing jobs domestically. No big revelations here. But it was this year that the Bush Administration began playing hardball. Just this week the US filed its 4th WTO complaint against China this year. These complaints started coming around the same time as US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson began the second round of 'strategic economic dialogue' with China. And, coincidentally, the product recalls because of lead paint began shortly thereafter. So is there a connection here? On the surface, one might not think so.

Before the 'strategic economic dialogue,' Treasury Secretary Paulson was not outwardly keen to press China on the issue of revaluation. I have to admit, when I heard that, I was a bit surprised, given the pressure lawmakers in Washington were putting on him to do something about the Renminbi, given their individual pressures at home because of manufacturing job losses. And when the toy recall issue started popping up in the States, I really didn't think twice about making a connection. However, it did get me to thinking recently...

Was Mr. Paulson was putting up a smoke screen in May? Were there plans already afoot to try to put increased pressure on China and reduce the trade surplus?

Unlike China, of course, the US government does not control what the media can and can't report. However, that's not to say that the government can't find a way to influence what 'revelations' are made in the media. It happens all the time. As a western journalist myself, I was constantly trying to groom contacts in the government. And when doing this, often times it turns into a game of give and take. Sometimes you will be given a 'tip,' that you know is merely a 'trial balloon.' Still, you run with it, because it's legitimate, and you have to - as we say in the media - 'feed the beast,' or get stories on the air for consumption. You do this as a journalist so that when you do uncover something that isn't fed to you, the odds of getting better information to round out your story increases.

So, with this knowledge, I posit this suggestion: Did the Bush Administration point the media in the right direction when it comes to Chinese recalls? Now, I'm not saying that - if this was the case - the Administration is still pushing the issue with journalists. There's no need. Once the media gets its teeth into an ongoing issue, it will stick with it and look for new angles on the existing issue. Some might call it lazy journalism, but it's still the way the system works. And for the Bush Administration, why not just sit back and hope that these recalls will start to fuel other stories about the safety of Chinese products (which, it has). What better way to stimulate spending on domestically-manufactured products than to put fear into the hearts of your consumers about products from overseas. You do that, then fewer and fewer bad Chinese products hit the shelves and the trade balance is reduced without having to continue beating on China over the revaluation of the Renminbi.

As I said before, there's no proof I can conjure up to add any credibility to this theory. But if you do the math on the timelines, it does make for curious speculation.