Making sense of China's political machinations

Joseph Kahn has written an excellent story in the International Herald Tribune (also run, I assume, in the New York Times) that sheds some light on some final decisions and speculation surrounding the CPC's personnel changes. Here is what Kahn has noted, in summary:

• Xi Jinping takes up a role on the Standing Committee of the Politburo (as was speculated on this blog) and is tapped as the front-runner to succeed Hu Jintao in 2012. In fact, Kahn cites one party source saying, "The party is too concerned about stability to leave the issue undecided."


• Zeng Qinghong retires from the Standing Committee of the Politburo.


• Li Keqiang, a close Hu ally, will be promoted to the Standing Committee of the Politburo and will succeed Wen Jiabao as Prime Minister in 2012.


• Wu Yi, responsible for international trade, will retire and be replaced by Zhang Dejiang, the current party chief for Guangdong Province. (It's speculated that Madame Wu must retire due to health concerns.)


• Commerce Minister Bo Xilai will become the Party Chief for Chongqing.


• Current Chongqing party chief Wang Yang will become party chief for Guangdong.


• Yu Zhengsheng will assume Xi Jinping's role as Shanghai Party Chief (a role Xi only had for a few months).

The Kahn article also mentions that Jiang wanted the politburo standing committee reduced to only seven members, which had also previously been speculated on this blog.

If this is indeed the final lineup, it's hard to conclude this is anything less than a loss of face for Hu (which Kahn also noted). Xi Jinping is a compromise candidate who was chosen to replace Chen Liangyu because he was suitable to both Jiang and Hu. The only Hu loyalist who received a high-level promotion is Li Keqiang, who was part of the party's youth wing which Hu once led.

The moves also demonstrate Jiang Zemin's continuing influence in high-level party politics. It's clear he's still consulted on the major decisions and his influence may be just less than, or equal to, Hu's own influence.

I have talked with a few people who have told me this may not be fully decided. One move that doesn't make much sense is Bo Xilai's move from Commerce Minister to Chongqing Party Chief, which some people have argued is a demotion. Bo has a strong and loyal following in the party, and may be a darkhorse for the role of President or Prime Minister in 2012. His father was the famed Bo Yibo, who was on Mao's long march and died earlier this year.

In addition, senior party leaders held a late night meeting last night. There may be a few more tweaks and changes before everything comes to light during the congress.