Hillary's anger-fuelled, Britney-style meltdown

It's been fascinating for this political junkie to watch Hillary Clinton flailing as she is brought down by a young, charismatic upstart. The Clinton campaign machine -- a formidable machine, at that -- is now desperately grasping at straws in ways that we've never seen before. Hillary realizes New Hampshire is do-or-die (well, not technically, but figuratively: if she loses the first two states, Obama's message of hope will only gain traction) and her desperation seems to be turning voters off of her in droves. The latest poll from Rasmussen points to Obama with 37% support, and Clinton 10 points behind.

Now, watching somebody slowly sink in public is morbid fun for most people, but with Hillary, it could've been avoided, or at least mitigated, with some more careful strategic planning.

People have always had doubts about Hillary. Sure, she's polished and says the right things. But there's still a sneaking suspicion that, for whatever reason, there is a wolf under that sheep's clothing. Something about her just isn't palatable -- in fact, it turns people off.

Hillary knows this, which is why through most of the campaign she has focused on the "likeability factor", which both Obama and Edwards have in spades (so do many of the Republican candidates, most notably Mr. Huckabee). There are plenty of potential reasons for her lack of warmth -- but the fact is it's an issue she has to deal with.

Which was why I was surprised that she ripped Iowa voters following her loss in the state's caucuses this week. If she has a "witch" side, it showed in these comments from her campaign:

"The worst thing would be to over count Iowa and its importance," said chief strategist Mark Penn, just hours after the New York senator finished in a disappointing third place, behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

"Iowa doesn't have a record of picking presidents. We're in a strong position to move forward," Penn told a handful of reporters on board a chartered midnight flight [...]

Most people inside the Clinton camp are shrugging off Iowa all together. "Iowa is so small, it's like a mayor's race in a medium-sized city," traveling press secretary Jay Carson said. "It wouldn't be wise to put too much emphasis on it."

Now, to be fair, Hillary didn't say these words herself - but she didn't have to. The campaign speaks on behalf of the candidate, and the comments were not only insulting to Iowa voters but also arrogant. And they confirmed people's fears. She was begging for their votes and praising Iowans as being "sophisticated" just prior to voting day -- now they can be written off?

Then there was her last-minute debate appearance tonight, where she lit into the agents of change in an "angry" way, according to some pundits. I watched the clip myself (you can find it on YouTube here) and think people are being a little unfair. Sure, she got testy, but I think if that were Giuliani or Edwards or Obama, they wouldn't be taking nearly the heat for it, which goes to my point: Hillary must be extra careful in these exchanges because the spotlight is on, and people are just waiting for evidence to prove their suspicions that she's not fit for office. When you're looking for it, you'll find it, and they did tonight.

To me, Hillary was at her best when she looked confident. Unlike what her advisers have clearly told her to do, I don't believe the scrappier Hillary is helping at all, and the facts appear to be backing that up. At a Democratic dinner in New Hampshire last night, Hillary was booed twice -- booed by Democrats! -- while Obama received a reception like a rock star. This isn't to mention that she also now trails Obama by 10 points, as I mentioned earlier, and seems to plummet further with each gaffe. It doesn't help that the media smells blood, and is now going after her. As Carl Bernstein said, Obama's campaign has received so much momentum that it's becoming a crusade, and with each passing day it's becoming stronger.

So what can she do? Unfortunately, not much. As some analysts have pointed out, her campaign didn't see the broad theme of "change" until it was too late, and she was bowled over in Iowa. It was awkward to see her standing on stage following her loss in the caucuses with Bill Clinton and Madeleine Albright standing nearby -- that makes it awfully difficult for her to wrap herself in the mantra of "change". As many used to say about Obama, Hillary's speech just didn't seem "authentic."

That being said, here are a couple of things she should've done earlier, and might like to try now anyway, because it's hail mary time.

• Get rid of the vestiges of the Bill Clinton regime - Perhaps even two years ago this may have worked, when people yearned for the smooth, well-spoken, Clinton, who had the economy humming. But change is this year's theme, and having Bill and Madeleine hang around hurts her message.
• Don't shy away from your record - She did this a bit in the debate. Hillary has much more experience than Obama in the White House, and in the Senate. Use it.
• Don't be afraid to attack Obama's experience - Hillary has done this too, but in a way that makes her out to be the villain. Obama is turning his biggest weakness - inexperience - into a strong point by advocating change. But his inexperience is also his biggest weakness, and it needs to be forcefully pointed out. Hillary needs to say to the American people: "Right now, our country is at war. Iran is on the cusp of getting nuclear weapons. Pakistan is crumbling. China is rising. Senator Obama cares for this country deeply and has some good ideas for the future, but it is too risky to put a young, one-term Senator in the White House before he is ready." (I can almost guarantee that this will be the attack line of the Republicans if Obama wins the nomination).
• Admit that Obama is strong, and politely draw parallels - I wish more politicians would do this, because it makes them more human and more likeable (and we all know Hillary needs all the help she can get). There's nothing wrong with saying Obama is a strong speaker, and he has good ideas for the country. But he's been light on specifics and big on rhetoric, so Americans should read the fine print before making such an important decision.

Unfortunately for Hillary, there are a number of variables in this year's campaign that are working against her, regardless of her campaign strategy. The biggest and most overwhelming, of course, is change. From TIME:

But it's possible that the most difficult problem is not Obama; it could be Clinton. How can she retool her message -- and her identity as a virtual incumbent -- to resonate with an electorate that seems to yearn more for change than any other quality? Says one longtime Democratic strategist, who is close to the Clintons: "Fundamentally, she is who she is; she can't change who she is, and maybe this is not her time."

As I said before, it's too late now for any changes in campaign strategy to have much of an effect, at least on voters in New Hampshire. Hillary's candidacy is not dead yet, but I'd venture to say it's getting close to life support. New Hampshire will be big, and Hillary needs at least a strong second-place showing to maintain a shred of momentum.

But there's blood in the water, and if tonight's debate was any indication, Obama, Edwards, and even some media outlets are going in for the kill.