US report raises questions other than the PLA going into North Korea

A fascinating headline recently caught my attention and got me doing some reading. You may have read recently about a new report from a coalition of Washington-based think tanks which noted that Beijing would consider the option of sending PLA troops into North Korea if the Kim Jong-Il regime ever went in the tank. The splashy headlines belie the fact that the report is actually quite vague, and makes reference to this concept as coming from Chinese academics. That is to say that no government official was quoted as saying the idea of direct Chinese intervention into a destabilized North Korea was on the table. That's not to say that there aren't such plans swirling around somewhere. However, having read "Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor" myself, I think you have to take what's contained in it with a grain of salt.

But in reading through the 28 page document, I did discover a couple of highlights worth noting. One part of it points out that within academic circles, there is interest now in discussing North Korean stability directly with the United States.

There is apparent new willingness among Chinese institute analysts and PLA researchers to discuss the warning signs of instability in North Korea and how China might respond if the situation gets out of control and threatens Chinese security. Some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States, including possible joint responses in support of common objectives such as securing nuclear weapons and fissile material. Other analysts maintain that such discussions are premature.

I find this somewhat interesting. Of course, if the North Korean government did collapse, it's in China's interest to make sure that it doesn't get a flood of refugees filing over its border. But what I find curious is that there is desire to discuss the issue with the United States. China has long been shoring up its influence in the Asian theatre as the big player on the block. So why get the US involved in its own back yard? In theory, China has the resources and apparent ability to deal with a collapsing North Korea. So why involve a country that is likely going to insist that a democracy be the order of day as the replacement for the Kim Jong-Il regime? Why invite trouble to your doorstep if you are China? This revelation makes me think that China isn't nearly as able to keep stability in the Northeast 'rustbelt' as we might be led to believe.

The other nugget that caught my attention was the obvious concern being expressed by the Chinese academics about a rapid increase in the US-North Korean relationship. Of course, the official line is that the Chinese would encourage strengthened bi-lateral ties between Washington and Pyongyang. However, this report notes something that you won't hear about from the Chinese:

Some Chinese experts even worry that Washington and Pyongyang will cut a deal that will permit North Korea to keep its nuclear weapons in exchange for concessions by the DPRK. A leading Chinese analyst suggested, for example, that the DPRK could pledge to not proliferate and give up long-range nuclear missiles in return for U.S. acceptance of the country as a nuclear weapons state.

The report goes on to point out that if this were to happen outside of the 6 party framework that it would essentially leave Beijing twisting in the wind, because China has insisted that Pyongyang has to give up its nukes. The report also notes that the United States urged China to put pressure on India after its nuclear test in 1998, only to reverse its position and condone India's nuclear program, leaving China cleaning up a political mess between itself and India for the next two years.

So will the United States allow Pyongyang to hang on to its nukes? A year ago, I would have said no way. Personally meeting Assistant US Secretary of State and lead US negotiator Christopher Hill last year (over a pint at the Irish Embassy for St. Paddies day), he seemed quite confident that North Korea was going to be totally disarmed by the end of the year. Well, 2008 is upon us, and Pyongyang still has the bomb. And with the Bush Administration's time ticking down, there may be additional pressure on Mr. Hill to get a deal done to give the outgoing President a legacy in Asia. As such, I'm starting to wonder if there's maybe something like the Chinese are worried about brewing between the US and North Korea.

All in all, "Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor" -- in my mind -- holds minimal appeal and merely reinforces what most of us already know.