Musical Chairs: Hui Liangyu back, Xi Jinping takes over from Zeng Qinghong, and other rumors
Zhongnanhai (the blog) has been hearing many different versions of the changes that are occuring inside Zhongnanhai (the government compound).
We have speculated on this blog about the political future of one high profile official, and we are still waiting to hear official word. That being said, a number of other rumors are circulating this week, as China's leadership meets behind closed doors until Wednesday. This three day session aims at hammering out the details ahead of the National People's Congress, which opens on March 20 (Update: As Xinhua has confirmed, the opening date for the NPC is March 5). The new recruits to the Standing Committee of the Politburo will receive their portfolios, and several other staffing announcements will be made on that day.
This blog is unwilling to stake its reputation (what little of one we may have) on these rumors, although, shall we say, we're "confident" that we're right. That being said, our sources tell us "anything can change" when it comes to Chinese politics.
So let's begin the guessing, and compare notes following the formal announcements on March 5:
- Wang Qishan, the former mayor of Beijing who stepped down last year, will become the Vice-Premier in charge of the economy.
- Hui Liangyu will return to the fold, and become a Vice-Premier.
- Xi Jinping, the annointed successor to Hu Jintao, will take over Zeng Qinghong's former role.
More details will be posted as it leaks out of this week's meeting.
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"The NPC, the country's top legislature, and the CPPCC, the top advisory body, will open their annual full sessions on March 5 and March 3, respectively."
Xinhua News Agency
Chris:
The date of the opening of the congress has been fluid, much like the congress in October, when the final dates weren't finalized until a late date.
You are correct that the two sessions will open on March 3 and 5.
Cam.
It was announced yesterday that Wang Qishan (王岐山) will be the new Vice Premier in charge of the financial sector.
As not only former Mayor of Beijing but also former head of China Construction Bank with a long and strong track record in the sector, Wang is seen as an insider who knows both the issues and the players well, including the major internationals. Sometimes compared with former Premier and business-minded reformist Zhu Rongji, he also seen as a reformer who might shake things up by appointing new heads to the PBC and CBRC, as well as potentially other major institutions; although many still believe Zhou Xiaochuan will remain as the governor of the PBC, bolstered by vindications of his controversial exchange rates policies.
Another contender for the position was Li Keqiang, who was less favoured by many in the industry as he has no previous background in the financial sector and would not be expected to make any bold moves towards further reform.
There have also been rumours about the consolidation of the three Regulatory Commissions (Banking, Securities and Insurance) into one super-agency, which would naturally fall under Wang's purview. As much as 40% of the staff could be let go in the consolidation; but the final verdict is still not known even internally.
Overall, this should be good news for those of use working on financial sector issues - but as always we will have to see how it plays out in the end.
PS Linking (click my name) to an interesting piece reconfirming trends already seen in the selection of officials to positions in the top leadership.
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