Reasoning through the unreasonable

Hosting an analysis show on state-run media here in China can be best described as an interesting experience. Coming here two and a half years ago, I had to sort of retrain myself and put myself in the Chinese government mindset when it comes to the things you can or can't say. I'd like to think that I picked up the concept rather quickly...though there have been a few occasions where I've crossed that invisible and undefined line in the sand that the CPC doesn't like. Thankfully, the repercussions have been minimal. That being said, I'm still often times at a loss to explain (and never given any official explanation) as to why certain events and topics are taboo. The past week and a bit is a prime example of this.

Three major international events have taken place recently that - in my mind - screamed to be talked about on an analysis show like mine: Kosovo declaring independence, Castro resigning (and possibly dying, though this is just a pet conspiracy theory of mine) and the election in Pakistan. But, much to my frustration, all three were on the banned list. So I'm going to try to reason through for you why said events will not be aired.

Kosovo: Well, this one is pretty obvious. Any connection - thin as it may be - to the potential independence of Taiwan makes the Foreign Ministry's sphincter pucker up tighter than a snare drum. In fact, any connection to the "3-T's" is almost always off limits. Once during a program on immigration, I made reference to the Statue of Liberty in the United States as a beacon for European immigrants to that country. That reference was subsequently nixed because - as was reasoned to me - it potentially could have reminded people of a certain icon that was on display during a certain event that took place here in Beijing in the summer of 1989.

Castro: This one is a bit more confusing. But I think there are a few reasons behind why I won't be talking about Fidel. One is historical. Though they are both communist countries, China and Cuba have never had a strong relationship. Castro closely allied himself with Khrushchev in the 60's and made the Soviet Union his close ally. This came at a time when the Sino-Soviet split was starting. And since then, China has had no more than a passing relationship with Cuba. Another reason, in my estimation, is the current state of global affairs. The United States, one of China's key export markets, continues to maintain an embargo on Cuba. As such, analyzing Castro and Cuba on Chinese state-run media - as far as the Foreign Ministry is concerned - could be interpreted by the US as sympathetic gesture toward Cuba, and potentially strain relations with its big trading partner. And the third reason I can think of is potential concern about angering the Cuban embassy here. A few years back, the Cuban embassy launched a formal complaint with the Foreign Ministry after one of the news readers at this radio station referenced Fidel Castro as Cuban dictator instead of the preferred nomenclature of Cuban leader. Needless to say, this radio station has been walking on eggshells ever since when it comes to the Cuban embassy.

Pakistan: This one too is a bit more difficult to figure out. But there may be a couple of possible explanations. One is that this current CPC leadership group has always maintained a good relationship with Pervez Musharraf. And given the outcome of the vote, the Pakistani administration wouldn't be too pleased to hear Chinese media picking apart the reasons why Musharraf got his ass handed to him at the polls. The other, and perhaps more obscure, reason may relate the leadership in Zhongnanhai itself. Musharraf is the President and head of the Pakistani military. Hu Jintao is the President and Chair of the Central Military Commission. Musharraf is potentially going to be ousted by a coalition of people who don't support his policies. Hu Jintao...well... You see why there might be some concern about analyzing the situation too deeply.

As I've said before, there are times working in state-run media where I'm surprised what I can get away with saying. But, that being said, I suspect as the Olympics draw nearer, anxiety is only going to push the people in charge of the state-run media organs to become that much more politically conservative.