Just days before the Taiwanese head to the polls, and Tibet matters: big time

The unrest in Tibet is having a dramatic effect on Taiwan's national elections. Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT candidate, had held a commanding lead in the polls by advocating a common market, or economic zone, with China.

Of course, Ma's lead was also attributable to rampant corruption within the DPP. Many Taiwanese feel the economy, rather than relations with China, is the number one concern heading into Saturday's elections. But Tibet has thrown a wrench into everything.

Ma's traditional pro-China policy has come under fire (courtesy of the Thirsty Ghosts blog, h/t to Michael Turton's A View from Taiwan blog):

Those plans now appear in danger as public outrage here over Beijing's ongoing crackdown in Tibet has forced Ma to mothball his ''China-friendly'' persona. With just three days left before the island's presidential election Saturday, the frontrunner is scrambling to prevent rival Frank Hsieh of the DPP from painting him as a Beijing apologist amid the clampdown.

''At the beginning of Mr. Ma's campaign, he was rarely harsh on China. But because of [Hsieh's] attacks for being soft on the Tibet issue, Ma's had to adjust his strategy,'' said Huang Kwei-bo, a political scientist at National Chengchi University.

''I sense a shift [in Ma's rhetoric],'' Huang said.

Making matters worse were Wen Jiabao's Tuesday comments, which ''forced Mr. Ma's hand,'' he said.

'"It was very unwise for Wen to talk about Tibet and Taiwan together -- that will remind people here of China's view of the island as a renegade province,'' he added, referring to Wen's blaming the Dalai Lama for riots by Tibetans and then slamming Taiwan's referenda in the same press conference.

Yes, that was a bad move by Wen. Any issue regarding separatism involving Xinjiang, Taiwan, Tibet, or Hong Kong is felt by the other three. Tibetan protesters, and Beijing's military, have unwittingly given the Taiwanese a huge reason to return the DPP to power under Frank Hsieh. Taiwanese have traditionally looked at Hong Kong, and problems in the territory under Chinese rule, to justify their decision to remain independent. But Tibet provides a more startling comparison.

And it looks like China's crackdown in Tibet is putting the scare into Taiwan voters:

Ma enjoyed a 20-point advance in the last opinion poll 11 days ago before a pre-election ban took effect, but that was before bloodshed in the Himalayan region focused attention on Taiwan's own future.

The self-ruled island split from the mainland in 1949 but is still claimed by China, and the pro-independence Hsieh has argued that a Ma-led Kuomintang administration would make reunification more likely.

"Ma's lead over Hsieh is narrowing," said George Tsai, a political science professor at Chinese Cultural University.

Turton agrees with this sentiment after attending an event featuring Jonathan Manthorpe, a Canadian who wrote the book Forbidden Nation (an excellent history lesson on Taiwan, by the way):

Manthorpe talked for roughly 45 minutes. Unlike many newsman, Manthorpe was aware that the published polls in the pro-Blue papers are nonsense. He said that people he respected from both parties had told him the election was tight. It's Ma's election to lose, but if he screws up, he could lose.

On Tibet, Manthorpe said that everyone had told him that it would have little effect on the election. He did say it could have an effect if the election is close. My own prediction is that if Hsieh wins, the KMT will immediately blame it on Tibet even though they are saying beforehand that Tibet will have no effect.

I still think Ma has the advantage, mainly because of the DPP's corruption scandals. Corruption has a way of bringing down governments awfully fast, and the Pan-Green coaltion will be no exception.

But Tibet has thrown the DPP dog a bone; it remains to be seen whether it will be enough. Turton argues, however, that even if Ma wins, he will merely be a figurehead:

As everyone braces for a probable Ma victory, there's a new line out that Ma and Beijing might not necessarily work with each other as well as people like me believe. Lots of people in the community of Taiwan observers are taking that position. I remain skeptical. Because for all that Ma has criticized Beijing, he hasn't said that Tibet should be independent. At heart, I believe, Ma remains committed to the China-as-Zion theology of the ROC. In any case, the focus on Ma is wrong; if Ma himself ran the KMT, I would have fewer worries -- but the ideologues at the top like Lien Chan, who think of themselves as Chinese and despise Taiwan, are running the show. Ma has never shown any ability to stand up to them. I'm afraid that those betting on a Ma show of strength are trying to build castles out of pudding....

Election day is Saturday. Let's hope CNN returns by then.