Recently in North Korea Category

A fascinating headline recently caught my attention and got me doing some reading. You may have read recently about a new report from a coalition of Washington-based think tanks which noted that Beijing would consider the option of sending PLA troops into North Korea if the Kim Jong-Il regime ever went in the tank. The splashy headlines belie the fact that the report is actually quite vague, and makes reference to this concept as coming from Chinese academics. That is to say that no government official was quoted as saying the idea of direct Chinese intervention into a destabilized North Korea was on the table. That's not to say that there aren't such plans swirling around somewhere. However, having read "Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor" myself, I think you have to take what's contained in it with a grain of salt.

But in reading through the 28 page document, I did discover a couple of highlights worth noting. One part of it points out that within academic circles, there is interest now in discussing North Korean stability directly with the United States.

There is apparent new willingness among Chinese institute analysts and PLA researchers to discuss the warning signs of instability in North Korea and how China might respond if the situation gets out of control and threatens Chinese security. Some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States, including possible joint responses in support of common objectives such as securing nuclear weapons and fissile material. Other analysts maintain that such discussions are premature.

I find this somewhat interesting. Of course, if the North Korean government did collapse, it's in China's interest to make sure that it doesn't get a flood of refugees filing over its border. But what I find curious is that there is desire to discuss the issue with the United States. China has long been shoring up its influence in the Asian theatre as the big player on the block. So why get the US involved in its own back yard? In theory, China has the resources and apparent ability to deal with a collapsing North Korea. So why involve a country that is likely going to insist that a democracy be the order of day as the replacement for the Kim Jong-Il regime? Why invite trouble to your doorstep if you are China? This revelation makes me think that China isn't nearly as able to keep stability in the Northeast 'rustbelt' as we might be led to believe.

The other nugget that caught my attention was the obvious concern being expressed by the Chinese academics about a rapid increase in the US-North Korean relationship. Of course, the official line is that the Chinese would encourage strengthened bi-lateral ties between Washington and Pyongyang. However, this report notes something that you won't hear about from the Chinese:

Some Chinese experts even worry that Washington and Pyongyang will cut a deal that will permit North Korea to keep its nuclear weapons in exchange for concessions by the DPRK. A leading Chinese analyst suggested, for example, that the DPRK could pledge to not proliferate and give up long-range nuclear missiles in return for U.S. acceptance of the country as a nuclear weapons state.

The report goes on to point out that if this were to happen outside of the 6 party framework that it would essentially leave Beijing twisting in the wind, because China has insisted that Pyongyang has to give up its nukes. The report also notes that the United States urged China to put pressure on India after its nuclear test in 1998, only to reverse its position and condone India's nuclear program, leaving China cleaning up a political mess between itself and India for the next two years.

So will the United States allow Pyongyang to hang on to its nukes? A year ago, I would have said no way. Personally meeting Assistant US Secretary of State and lead US negotiator Christopher Hill last year (over a pint at the Irish Embassy for St. Paddies day), he seemed quite confident that North Korea was going to be totally disarmed by the end of the year. Well, 2008 is upon us, and Pyongyang still has the bomb. And with the Bush Administration's time ticking down, there may be additional pressure on Mr. Hill to get a deal done to give the outgoing President a legacy in Asia. As such, I'm starting to wonder if there's maybe something like the Chinese are worried about brewing between the US and North Korea.

All in all, "Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor" -- in my mind -- holds minimal appeal and merely reinforces what most of us already know.

Sorry... perhaps I should say the "Democratic People's Republic of Korea", as we're forced to do in Chinese state-run media. (Likewise, South Korea is the ROK.)

Richard Spencer, who also writes a wonderful blog, has an article in today's Daily Telegraph about North Korea's test firing a series of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan. It's not the first time North Korea has been rattling its sabres, of course. After repeated warnings from Washington to suspend development of a nuclear weapon, North Korea (oops... DPRK!) went ahead and built one anyway.  Then after promises of "grave consequences" if North Korea went ahead with a nuclear test, it did it anyway.  Now this, from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe:

"We have been saying that our patience has come to its limit."

He also warned of a response if North Korea did not begin dismantling the nuclear reactor soon.

Hmm... "warned" of a "response".  You mean, like Japan did prior to the completion of the weapons program?  Like it did prior to the nuclear test?  And what exactly is the response? Pyongyang has been calling Japan and America's bluff for a while now.

I can't help but feel a bit sorry for North Korea.  It's a basket-case regime that is crying out for attention -- any kind of attention. It presses ahead with a nuclear weapons program despite warnings, then tests a weapon despite warnings, then goes ahead and fires missles into the Sea of Japan.  Still, the most the established powers can come up with as a "response" is their "patience has come to its limit."  In fact, if the Six Party Agreement comes into effect, Kim Jong Il can probably credit his nuclear program with fending off the United States.

Kim's regime must figure the western establishment is pretty spineless.  Nothing but empty warnings, rhetoric, and threats. The best way to handle North Korea may be to just forget about it, because it's highly unlikely Kim, the head of a poverty-ridden country, will do anything (like send missiles into downtown Seoul or Tokyo) to destabilize his hold on power. And I think the US has isolated the DPRK enough to keep tabs on any possible weapons or technology that Kim may try and send to other rogue regimes.

Scott Feschuk is a humerous Canadian writer, and has two short blurbs on North Korea here and here.  They are a bit dated, but still worth checking out.