BEIJING - As of last night iron ore price negotiations appear to have stalled between BHP Billiton and Chinese steel-makers.
With so much at stake for both parties, it seems
inconceivable and more than a little thrilling that the Australian mining giant
would dig its heels in over a percentage which, if achieved, will be something
less of a financial top-up for its shareholders and more of an infuriating and
spectacular loss of face for its largest, most fundamental and most volatile
customer.
There is a perceptible sense of detachment to the
possibility of a BHP / Sino trainwreck on the part of the world's largest primary resources company. As if to
highlight its own penny-pinching behaviour and reinforce China's already raging
suspicions, BHP's competitor and target in a 160 billion (US) hostile
takeover bid, Rio Tinto, last week secured an agreement with Baosteel for a 79.8 % to 96.5% iron ore
contract spike.
Considered both
workable and lucrative, it stands in desperate contrast to what CISA (China
Iron and Steel Assoc.) has politely described in an official statement as
"improper and unfair" haggling on the part of BHP whose negotiations
have already long passed the June 30 deadline.
Foolhardy or
cocksure, BHP's decision to push for contract prices based on highly-profitable
screens-based trading, rather than the traditional annual agreements, may very
well box CISA into a corner. At the very least it's going to piss a lot of
people off.
The
world's biggest steelmaker, which happily consumes up to half the globe's annual
iron ore, has already shown its displeasure and opposition to the proposed Rio
takeover and may very possibly draw a line in the sand over perceived slights.
Traditionally giving voice to long-term compatibility over short term profit,
and with the United Nations
Conference on Trade and Development, (UNCTAD) this week forecasting 600 million
tonnes of new iron ore production likely to come on-stream over the next two
years (loosening China's dependence on BHP's product), the ingredients are in
place for a startling realization of the threat of a China BHP boycott.
The economic
repercussions of which will not only make for great telly, but also put a dent
in Australia's faltering economy, kept largely afloat on the back of the China
fuelled resources boom.