BEIJING - I don't often like to write much about the US election on this website, because the main goal of Zhongnanhai is to share opinions about what's happening in China.  But with the conventions, VP selections, new poll numbers, and final sprint towards election day, there is too much going on to be ignored.

Latest poll numbers have Barack Obama/Joe Biden trailing John McCain/Sarah Palin by anywhere from 1 to 10 percentage points.  It's a big shift from only a few months ago, when Obama was in the lead, and even 14 days ago when he got a small and short-lived bounce following the Democratic convention in Denver.

The dynamics of this race are fascinating.  Obama, the first African-American candidate to secure the nomination of a major American party, against a fabled war hero and former POW.  Obama's vanquishment of Hillary Clinton, the standard-bearer of the party and frontrunner for the Democratic nomination since John Kerry was defeated in 2004, and the potential first woman to secure a major nomination.  Then there's Sarah Palin - all anyone can seem to talk about these days - as a surprise pick by John McCain.  She is "authentic" many say, a "hockey mom" from Wasilla, Alaska, a town not unfamiliar from many in my home province of British Columbia.

The whole campaign has an air of reality television - which it is, in some respects - complete with the drama, dramatic plot shifts, and history-making candidates.  That's all fine and good, except the winner doesn't drive off in a new Hummer or win a million dollars -- the winner has the potential to profoundly change the world.  Which is why we need to push the drama and distractions aside and pay more attention to the issues.

I was an early critic of Senator Barack Obama.  There is no doubt that his "lofty speeches", as they are often dubbed, are home-runs everytime he steps up to the plate.  He's an inspirational figure who calls on Americans to sacrifice for the good of the country.  This particular point is what drew Caroline Kennedy enthusiastically to his side.  At the time, I couldn't understand how so many people become his devout followers without Obama offering any kind of policy specifics.  It's easy to call for unity, for an end to an unjust war, or for healthcare for all.  But how would it be accomplished?  Many people didn't seem to care -- including many of Obama's most vocal supporters in the China blogosphere -- which left me stunned.  Surely we are smarter than to be taken in by empty words.  Perhaps Obama did have a plan, perhaps he was the best candidate -- we just didn't know, because he didn't share any specifics with us.  Many appeared to succumb to Obama's charisma, and were willing to vote for him on this basis alone. 

I've read the first biography from Senator John McCain, and I've been a luke-warm fan of his since (I've also read Obama's book, "Dreams From My Father", just for the record).  I appreciated his maverick streak, the way he stood up to President Bush on campaign finance, his support for renewable energy sources, his understanding of the threat caused by global warming, and his characterization of some of the more zealotrous components inside the Republican party as "agents of intolerance".  I'm naturally a middle-of-the-road kind of guy, and McCain had a demonstrated track record as such.  He was so close to the Democratic party, in fact, he was considered as a running mate for Senator John Kerry in 2004.

My problems with McCain began when Steve Schmidt took over his campaign.  Schmidt is a veteran of Bush's 2004 re-election and an underling of legendary spinmeister Karl Rove.  As someone interested in governments, campaigns, spin, and media management, I've always found Rove fascinating whether I agreed with him or not.  He was always able to get the job done, even if he did so without all of his ethics intact.  In fact, McCain's hiring of Rove's team left one scratching one's head, as it was Rove who destroyed McCain's candidacy during the particularly vicious South Carolina primary in 2000.  The fact McCain even considered burying that hatchet for his own advancement knocked his appeal level down a few notches.  Once Schmidt came on board, McCain released the Paris/Britney campaign ad.  Then Schmidt personally signed-off on Palin's convention speech, in which she repeatedly mocked Obama and the Democratic party.  The attacks have resulted in a Republican bounce in the polls, an energized Republican base, and Republican momentum heading into the final two months of the campaign.

I can't fault Schmidt for doing what he did -- after all, it has produced results.  Conversely, at his convention, Obama spoke very elegantly - and with specifics - about what he would do to fix America's myriad of problems.  It was an uplifting speech that was devoid of personal attacks.  What's disappointing is that again -- after falling for GOP fear tactics in 2004 -- the electorate appears to respond better to jokes, mocking, and ridicule that it does for actual discussion of the issues.

The American political system, in my humble opinion, is broken.  On the day after Palin was chosen as McCain's vice-presidential nominee, the New York Times ran three front-page stories on her family.  I am a regular reader of the New York Times and generally appreciate its journalism, but couldn't fathom why the old grey lady would turn to such tabloid tactics.  I decry the same tactics used to disparage Obama as nothing more than a black Paris Hilton on the march to the world's highest office.  Do Americans not understand this is not a popularity contest?  That the country is fighting in two wars, neither with an end in sight?  That the economy is nearing recession, that mortage lenders are being bailed out, that the dollar has tanked, that there are national deficits as far as the eye can see, that foreclosures continue at a torrid pace?  At what point must Americans care more about their own financial and physical security than weather Obama is too popular or Palin's daughter is pregnant?

Democrats and Republicans are far more concerned with beating each other than they are about campaigning seriously on the issues.  The GOP took the lead in the negative campaigning this year because it knows its record in office is abysmal.  It pays to keep the voters distracted if you're a GOP candidate... but it's up to the voters to be above that, and not become distracted by schoolyard taunts and bullying.  At some point the American voter needs to soberly consider the arguments... the question is, can they?  Americans can not continue to complain about smear campaigns and negative ads when it rewards them with their support.

For the record, I think Palin was a great pick by John McCain from a purely political perspective; as I said, she's energized the base and millions of Americans can relate to her.  She's the mother of five children, lives in a small town, and balances home and work life.  She is the perfect anecdote to Obama's more multicultural background, which many Americans can't relate to. But surely anybody with any sense of right and wrong knows that a woman who, only two years ago, was the mayor of a town of 6,000 people is not ready to become the President of the United States.  She may be ready someday, but McCain's pick smacks of political calculation only (the VP pick has always been influenced by political considerations, but never moreso than this year).  John McCain, this is not putting your country first.

Ironically, however, Democrats are getting a taste of their own medicine.  For the longest time, Obama was the fresh face, the new voice, the eloquent speaker, the man who could change Washington.  Now we have Palin, and the spotlight has shifted to the even newer person in town.  You can see how ridiculous this all becomes, and why celebrity status and charisma should never be defining reasons to support a candidate.  It also lays bare the shallow reasons why many supported Obama in the first place, as they get a glimpse of the other side doing the very same thing.  It's an embarrassment to supporters of both parties.

That being said, I've felt Obama improve in the last few months.  He's offered more policy specifics on ending America's energy dependence on the middle east and kickstarting the economy.  He's giving me actual reasons to support him, and I feel myself drifting in that direction (if I were ever able to vote -- I'm Canadian, so will only be casting my ballot in our upcoming election). Palin is likeable, but in my humble judgment is not ready to take over as President if anything were to happen to John McCain.  While I generally like McCain, he has transformed from a principled Senator to another mud-slinging GOP candidate for President.  My gut reaction is that McCain and Palin may both be nice people to have a beer with, but they've given me no hard reasons why they deserve my support.

The stakes in this election, needless to say, are high.  The American people have a big choice to make.  I hope whatever they choose, it's based on the candidates records, policies, and promises.  Electing the President of the United States - once again - based on fear, attack ads, charisma, drama, and tabloid journalism will seal America's fate.